FiveThirtyEight

Dec 6, 2022 · State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Jan 5, 2021 · All runoff polls FiveThirtyEight’s averages use all runoff polls conducted since the Nov. 3 general election. We adjust polls for house effects based on how much each poll differs from the …

[ { "candidate": "Trump", "party": "REP", "date": "2024-11-05", "pct_estimate": 47.70895, "hi": 48.774834999999996, "lo": 46.7367025 }, { "candidate": "Harris ...

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals).

Feb 24, 2025 · In 2023, we made changes to the way we calculated our favorability, approval, generic congressional ballot and national 2024 Republican primary polling averages.

Feb 25, 2025 · State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Jan 13, 2021 · FiveThirtyEight is tracking polls that ask whether respondents support removing President Trump from office before the end of his term.

Apr 7, 2020 · Who will win the Ohio primary? Ohio will vote on April 28th. This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast. See the …

Jun 18, 2019 · The Model’s Output DATE OF RUN: POLLS ANALYZED: DAYS UNTIL ELECTION: 11/04/14 1670 0