Moody’s own leading economic indicator that uses machine learning has estimated the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are now at 48%.

Abstract. This study investigates the cross-sectional variation in equity real estate investment trusts (EREITs) returns. A pooled cross-sectional, time-series approach is used as an alternative to ...

The study seeks to explore the extent to which macroeconomic variables affect the stock market behavior in the emerging market of Malaysia in the post 1997 financial crisis period, using the latest ...

Following the emergence of money velocity accelerators (CDOs and CPDOs), we have been insisting ad nauseam about the importance of credit as a macroeconomic variable, as in the spirit of the Financial ...

Therefore, one would expect macroeconomic variables and modeling exercises to be quite informative in explaining and forecasting the yield-curve movements. However, until very recently, standard ...

In this speech, I will lay out a path to modeling macrofinancial dynamics using a recent approach that I have worked on, and illustrate the usefulness of this avenue with a term structure application.

Investors’ demand for safe assets tends to increase when there’s more uncertainty, as in recessions. Consistent with this idea, short-term movements in the natural rate of interest, or r-star, are ...

Investopedia contributors come from a range of backgrounds, and over 25 years there have been thousands of expert writers and editors who have contributed. Somer G. Anderson is CPA, doctor of ...

Download PDF More Formats on IMF eLibrary Order a Print Copy Create Citation In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing ...